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21.12.2002 01:42:24
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Прочее; Россия-СССР;
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Ре: А источник
Дда, про Гольфстрим я, кажется, не так поняла - там идет речь только о "термохалиновои цирkуляции" в Сев. Атлантике. По моему, ето взаимосвязанно с Голфстримом, но теперь не уверена.
Источник - Science 2002, Dec 13., v. 298 статья - p. 2171 обзор po nei - p. 2110
дословная цитата (p. 2110)
The researchers estimate that for each degree of global warming, these six Eurasian rivers would pour a extra 212 km*3 per year into the Arctic Ocean. If global temperature rises by 5.8 degrees Celsius by 2100 - the upper end of estimates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) 2001 report - the rivers might increase freshwater flow to the Arctic Ocean by 1260 km*3 per year.
"It's a worrying number," says co-author Stefan Rahmstorf, a climatologist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. Increasing river runoff, he explains, might put the brakes on an important current in the North Atlantic called the thermohaline circulation (THC). Under present conditions, cold, salty surface waters sink to great depths and then move south, while warmer water on the surface moves northward. Any freshening of the surface waters in the North Atlantic would reduce the seawater density and slow the THC.
Climate models by Rahmstorf and colleagues at Princeton University suggest that the IPCC's worst-case warming scenario would put discharge in the ballpark of the amound needed to bring the THC to a halt. Contributions from other Arctic rivers, precipitation onto the Arctic Ocean, and melting ice (such as that on the Greenland ice cap) could push the THC across the threshold. That would put a damper on warming near the North Atlantic, Rahmstorf says. THC shutdowns haave had severe consequences in the past, he points out: 11,000 years ago, a sudden, massive pulse of freshwater into the North Atlantic chilled Europe. "It's not just an odd thing that happens in models," Rahmstorf says.
>>Ученые опасаются что опреснение Ледовитого океана нашими реками может остановить Гольфстрим. Грят, что 11 тыс. лет назад почти что так и было...
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>Уважаемая Лилия! А нет ли у Вас ссылок на эту информацию?
>С уважением.