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	Дата	11.10.2007 02:13:25
	Рубрики	В стране и мире;

Правительство не контролирует инфляцию

http://unokai.livejournal.com/89163.html

Правительство не контролирует инфляцию

министр экономического развития и торговли РФ Эльвира Набиуллина сообщила, что инфляция в РФ по итогам 2007г. будет больше, чем в 2006г. По итогам 2006г. инфляция составила 9%.

http://www.rbc.ru/fnews.frame/20071010175936.shtml

С таким уровнем инфляции правительство показывает свою полную недееспособность. Необходимо немедленно прекратить импорт инфляции, происходящий из за жесткой увязки курса рубля к бивалютной корзине и инфляционной скупки центробанком долларов и евро, не препятствуя дальнейшей ревальвации рубля по отношению к этим валютам.

Вот что пишет Бред Сетсер по этому поводу:

Chinese exporters (and foreign firms that produce in China) win so long as China pegs to the dollar, a policy that leads Chinese taxpayers to use the central bank balance sheet to subsidize Chinese exports. They actually do better with low US rates and a weak dollar than with higher US rates and a stronger dollar. Chinese taxpayers, on the other hand, have a lot to loose from dollar weakness.

просто заменим chinese на russian без изменения смысла

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/setser/219345#readcomments

Berkeley professor Barry Eichengreen argued back in 2004 that the dollar financing cartel was subject to collective action problems, as every country would prefer that another country assume the costs associated with financing the US. So far, though, such coordination problems haven’t materialized in a big way: some countries diversified, but others stepped up their dollar purchases. Total dollar reserve growth just keeps on rising. The commitment of key regional players – and particularly China – to the system has, in various ways, made defection from the dollar financing cartel costly.

I increasingly wonder whether aspects of the current situation more closely resemble another classic of game theory, the game of chicken. The US continues to direct its domestic monetary policy solely toward domestic conditions, no matter how its decisions impact on the dollar and its creditors. And it effectively dares those governments now intervening heavily to hold their currencies down -- action which has the effect of keeping the dollar up -- to do something other than intervene more in response.

This hardly seems like a long-term recipe for international economic and financial stability. But so far it has been – and it is likely that the best bet is that it will continue to be. It still makes me nervous that global financial stability hinges on the continued willingness of a few governments to lose large sums of money in the foreign exchange market.