Are the Russians really preparing for war?
By David Filipov October 15
Lt. Gen. Sergei Rudskoi of the Russian Military General Staff talks to reporters in September. (Alexander Zemlianichenko/Assocaited Press)
Some activities going on in Russia these days might make it seem like the country is genuinely preparing for war. Talk of bunkers and rations; missiles moving around; politicians uttering dire warnings — are these harbingers of a Russian-U.S. conflict?
The Washington Post's Moscow bureau decided to rank the signs to see how likely they suggest that Russia is getting ready to fight.
1. New bomb shelters
A poster appeared in a Moscow neighborhood asking residents to pony up 500 rubles (about $8) for the construction of a new bomb shelter because of "the expected nuclear attack on [Russia] from unfriendly countries (the USA and its satellites.)"
Does this mean war? Most definitely not. It turned out to be a hoax, probably aimed at bilking pensioners.
Хм... идея для стартапа pic.twitter.com/qGXmjOJIrY
— Alexey Navalny (@navalny) October 11, 2016
2. Emergency bread rations
The governor of St. Petersburg, Russia, has approved a plan to ensure emergency rations of 300 grams of bread for 20 days for each of the city's 5 million residents.
Does this mean war? No. It's more of a publicity stunt. Russian commentators quickly seized on the echo from World War II, when a German army held the city — then called Leningrad — in a stranglehold for 900 days. "That is more than twice as much as the ration during the Siege [of Leningrad]," wrote military analyst Alexander Golts in Yezhednevny Zhurnal. "It is also clear why they are reckoning just on 20 days: Given modern weapons, no one will need more."
3. Warmongering politicians
Ultranationalist lawmaker Vladimir Zhirinovsky warned that if America elects Hillary Clinton president, "it's war."
Does this mean war? No. Zhirinovksy, who has vowed to annex Alaska, flatten Poland and the Baltics, and enslave Georgia, made headlines. But his ridiculously misnamed Liberal Democratic Party of Russia controls 39 of the 450 seats in the Russian parliament, and he always votes with the Kremlin. He is a fan of Donald Trump but he's very far from the nuclear button.
4. Hiring a new army
The Russian government approved amendments to a law that allows it to augment its draft army by signing reservists and veterans to six-month paid contracts.
Does this mean war? Most likely not. Golts said that the provision only kicks in "in a period of extraordinary circumstances," such as responding to natural disasters or domestic disturbances. But one circumstance — "to maintain or restore peace and security" — could be interpreted to mean doing it somewhere outside of Russia. "The possibility cannot be ruled out that Moscow is contemplating a major ground operation in Syria," Golts concluded. His logic: The Kremlin has repeatedly promised not to send draftees to fight wars in other countries. That promise wouldn't apply to professional soldiers. For sure, sending troops to Syria, where Russia has already threatened to shoot down U.S. aircraft, could lead to a shooting war. But amending that law is a long way from signing up the soldiers.
5. Missile movements
Russia has moved nuclear-capable missiles to Kaliningrad, a region that borders the Baltic states.
Does this mean war? Not really. The news has stirred fears among some commentators that we are on the brink of nuclear war, and definitely caused concern in the Baltics and Poland, which would be within range of the Iskander missile. Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov, a Russian Defense Ministry spokesman, said that one of the missiles was deliberately exposed to a U.S. spy satellite and that the deployment was part of regular training. The foreign minister of Lithuania, which borders Kaliningrad, described the move as a negotiating tactic, albeit an unpleasant one.
Washington Post: Россия не собирается нападать
Сегодня 12:09
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Известная американская газета «Washington Post» пришла к неожиданному для западных СМИ выводу: русские не готовятся к войне со всем миром. Все перемещения российской армии, о которых в последнее время любят рассуждать в разных концах света, являются плановыми мероприятиями и никаким образом не предвещают начало мировой войны.
Многие западные политики любят раздувать конфликт из ничего. Они навязывают миру образ «агрессивной России», которая вовсю готовится к ядерному конфликту, а в свободное время подстерегает зазевавшихся прибалтов у своих границ. «Washington Post» проанализировала действия России и не нашла в них никаких свидетельств того, что русские собираются развязать мировую войну.
Наделавшие много шума российские ракеты в Калининграде газета не считает признаком подготовки к войне. Прибалты с поляками, услышав о ракетах, забегали в ужасе, словно те уже нацелились на их центральные площади. Однако перемещение ракет было лишь частью ранее запланированных мероприятий, которые никаким образом не являлись выражением «агрессии» против ближайших соседей или первым ходом в мировом ядерном конфликте.
То, что правительством России была одобрена поправка к закону об увеличении призывного состава войск в счет контрактов с резервистами и ветеранами, тоже глупо считать подготовкой к мировой войне. «Washington Post» подчеркивает, что соответствующее положение будет иметь силу исключительно при чрезвычайных обстоятельствах: стихийных бедствиях или при внутренних беспорядках.
Слухи о «российской угрозе» раздувает непосредственно Запад. Россия же, в свою очередь, всякий раз опровергает подобные сообщения. Своим «открытием» американская газета не сообщает ничего нового, а только лишний раз повторяет очевидные вещи, которые западные политики категорически не хотят слышать.