Su-33 talks twist and turn as China seeks carrier-borne fighter
Reuben F Johnson JDW Correspondent
Rio de Janeiro
Negotiations for the sale of Sukhoi Su-33 carrier-capable combat aircraft to the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) are still continuing with both sides interested in coming to a final agreement, Russian industry sources have told Jane's .
"Previous reports that these discussions are at an end or that the 'contract has been cancelled' are incorrect," said a Russian source close to the programme.
"The pattern with the PLAN and Chinese industry on this subject has been the same for several years," the source continued. "It is almost like a series of waves, you could say. They come to us with a high level of interest, asking a lot of questions, then their interest seems to fade into the background and then sometime later - the next wave - they are back with more questions again. It is obvious they are trying to build their version of the Su-33 or some type of carrier aeroplane, but for various reasons they cannot accomplish this on their own and whenever they reach some technological impasse they come back to us to try and learn what will get them to the next step in the design process."
Chinese industry previously acquired one of the older Su-27K carrier prototypes that remained in Ukraine when the USSR dissolved in 1991 - along with substantial documentation on the structural testing work that had been performed on this aircraft at the Research Institute for Aeroelastic Systems in the city of Feodosia. However, officials from the Siberian Aeronautical Research Institute (SibNIA) in Novosibirsk, Russia, have told Jane's that this alone is an inadequate design and technology base for the Chinese to be working from.
"If they [the PLAN] try to build an aircraft based on this prototype they acquired from Ukraine, then they have some unpleasant surprises in store for them," said one SibNIA researcher familiar with the programme. The aircraft in Ukraine was one of the earliest pre-production models and the research and testing conducted after it was built revealed a number of deficiencies in this initial design that were later corrected. "If the Chinese build a carrier aircraft using this design as a benchmark, it will fly apart after the second or third landing," the SibNIA official said.
Industry politics in both countries are playing a major role in the talks, according to Russian state officials familiar with the negotiations with the Chinese. "Chinese industry would like to have their government fund the development of a Chinese-designed carrier-borne fighter," said one Russian industry representative. "However, this is not the first choice of the Chinese military. They would like to buy an aircraft from Russia that is a known quantity and not gamble on the ability of their own industry to develop a new fighter that can take off and land on the carrier. And this conflict is at the heart of the decision for the PLAN."
Ukraine's industry is also a factor, according to Russian sources. "The PLAN are trying to negotiate for use of the Soviet-era facilities at Saki where carrier training was conducted for most of the pilots that are now flying off of the Russian Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier in order to minimise their reliance on Russia for training of their naval aviators."
However, the biggest question is what offer Russian industry will now make to the Chinese since the management change at RSK-MiG. "Misha [Sukhoi General Director Mikhail Pogosyan] is now also the MiG general director and he is trying to make sure he can sit comfortably astride both chairs," said one Russian industry official. "He may try to offer the new MiG-29K model to the Chinese in order to promote the fortunes of this firm he has now taken responsibility for."
RSK-MiG has come under criticism recently from Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who has said the concern needs to improve the quality of its products. MiG has already sold MiG-29Ks to the Indian Navy as part of the deal signed in January 2004 in which New Delhi agreed to acquire the refitted aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov (to be renamed Vikramaditya ). However, delivery of the Vikramaditya has now been delayed until 2012, which puts the future of the MiG-29K programme in doubt.
Sukhoi has since upped the ante by proposing an initial batch of 12-14 standard-configuration Su-33s that would be used as a training squadron for the PLAN and follow-on batches of 36 or more Su-33s with an internal set of onboard systems that were initially developed for the Su-35. Earlier, the Komsomolsk plant (KNAAPO) and Sukhoi had proposed a combination of the Su-33 airframe and Su-30MK2 internal systems.
However, the Su-35, which was originally in contention for the Brazilian Air Force fighter contest, has very few export prospects at present. If the PLAN agrees to this arrangement it would keep the Su-35 alive as a programme until some other export opportunities emerge.
In any event the economies of scale are still a major factor, according to Russian sources who spoke to Jane's . "Turning on the production line for a new-generation Su-33 for China does not make sense unless we are talking about 50 aircraft," said one official, close to the programme, reflecting the Russian view overall.