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U.S. buildup in Central Asia stirs concerns
By Jonathan Manthorpe
Countries around Afghanistan are beginning to visualize what the power balance in the region will look like after the American-led operation to root out the Taliban and al-Qaida, and they don't like what they see.
Of paramount concern are signs the Yanks don't intend to go home any time soon.
The prospects of a continuing United States military presence in a region slated to overtake Saudi Arabia as the prime source of imported American oil supplies, worries Iran and significant political elements in Russia.
The Speaker of of the Russian parliament, Gennadiy Seleznev, spoke out forcefully Thursday against any permanent U.S. military presence in Central Asia. Seleznev was reflecting known misgivings in Russian military and nationalist circles about Washington's growing influence in the region.
American troops are using bases in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Pakistan and Kyrgyzstan as stag-ing areas for attacks into Afghanistan. Some of these, especially an air base being constructed in Kyrgyzstan, are beginning to look like semi-permanent complexes designed to house a continuing U.S. military presence.
These facilities have been noticed with something like alarm in Iran, where recent overtures to soften two decades of snarly relations with Washington have not found a common song sheet.
To counter the U.S. military buildup, the Tehran government is working purposefully to cement relations with the Pakistani administration of its president, General Pervez Musharraf.
Musharraf needs friends. He knows he can't count on unqualified support from Washington because he usurped power in a bloodless coup in 1999, because his own country is a hotbed of terrorist organizations and because India is baying for revenge after an attack last month by Pakistan-based guerrillas on the New Delhi parliament.
He is going to get a highly visible demonstration of friendship from Iran soon. This will be either a visit of Iranian President Sayed Mohammad Khatami to Islamabad or an invitation for Musharraf to go to Tehran.
This offer from Tehran represents a significant shift in Iranian foreign relations and is a measure of the Khatami government's concern over continuing U.S. influence in the region.
Iran was a major part of the anti-Taliban movement and was equally opposed to the Taliban's sponsors, the Pakistan government. But Tehran is unhappy with the U.S.-imposed interim regime of Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan and is willing to shelve its resentment against Pakistan to counter it.
Washington is making no secret that it intends to play a visible and forceful role in the region for several years at least.
This week, Rear Admiral Craig Quigley, senior spokesman at the U.S. Central Command in Tampa, Fla., gave an apparently straightforward answer when questioned about about the major engineering projects going on at several regional air bases to improve runways, communications, storage and housing.
"There is great value in continuing to build airfields in a variety of locations on the perimeter of Afghanistan that over time can do a variety of functions, like combat operations, medical evacuation and delivering humanitarian aid," he said.
Hawkish deputy defence secretary Paul Wolfowitz put it more bluntly. "Their function may be more political than actually military," he said in an interview with the New York Times.
The bases would, he said, "send a message to everybody, including important countries like Uzbekistan, that we have a capacity to come back in and will come back in — we're not just going to forget about them".
Some countries in the region, especially most of the so-called "Stans" of Central Asia, are delighted at the presence of the Americans. It affirms their independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union and counters continuing Russian influence.
Their support for Washington also offers the prospect of significant financial rewards for their struggling economies.
Washington's continuing interest in this region is not just the war on terrorism, destroying al-Qaida and finding its leader, Osama bin Laden.
U.S. oil companies are deeply involved in the development of the massive oil and gas reserves in the region under and around the Caspian Sea. The size of these reserves indicate that in the not too distant future, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan will become more important to the security of America's oil supplies than Saudi Arabia is now.
Just as important as the security of the fields themselves will be that of the pipelines taking the product to warm water ports. At the moment, there are lines through Russia and one on the drawing boards to the Mediterranean across the territory of U.S. ally Turkey.
Another possible route to the Arabian Sea requires security and stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan, a questionable commodity without a continuing U.S. presence.
Although nationalists in Russia are upset at the Americans setting up camp in their back yard, President Vladimir Putin has said he is not opposed to the U.S. military presence in the region.
Putin has not spelled out why he is less apprehensive than his military or the Russian nationalists. But it may well be he is looking farther ahead and with a broader perspective.
To get his country functioning, he needs closer relations with both the U.S. and Washington's allies in Europe. He may consider allowing Washington to set up a network of semi-permanent mobile home cities in Central Asia a price worth paying. And nothing is forever.
The focus is narrower in Tehran. In preparation for a leaders' summit, Iran's foreign minister, Kamal Kharazi, visited Pakistan recently. Kharazi went to Islamabad with a full delegation, including trade representatives, to back his words that Tehran will support Musharraf, even in the event of a war with India.
In return for his support, Khatami is asking Musharraf to back calls for the U.S. and its allies to get their troops out of the region as quickly as possible.
At the same time, Iran is quietly working to undermine the Washington-backed Karzai interim government in Kabul.
One of the legendary muja-hedeen leaders of the fight against the Soviet invasion in the 1980s, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, lives in exile in Iran and has been excluded from the interim government. He has proclaimed a jihad against the Karzai administration.
If there were such an uprising, another excluded leader, Iranian ally and fabled former mujahedeen warrior, Ismail Khan, "the Lion of Herat," would undoubtedly join.
Sun International Affairs Columnist
jmanthorpe@pacpress.southam.ca
THE VANCOUVER SUN, SATURDAY, JANUARY 12, 2002