US aerospace industry predicted to grow despite economic downturn
The US aerospace industry saw significant growth in 2008 and is poised to continue expanding in 2009 - albeit more modestly - despite a global...
12-Dec-2008
Will new measures keep Russian reform on track?
Russia is reported to have put together a USD5.4 billion package of measures aimed at relieving the "dire cash shortage" of its defence industrial ...
12-Dec-2008
US aerospace industry predicted to grow despite economic downturn
Caitlin Harrington JDW Staff Reporter
Washington, DC
The US aerospace industry saw significant growth in 2008 and is poised to continue expanding in 2009 - albeit more modestly - despite a global economic downturn, according to the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA).
Aerospace industry sales for civilian, military and space applications grew 2.1 per cent to USD204 billion in 2008. The increase is smaller than in recent years but still substantial, AIA President and Chief Executive Officer Marion Blakey told reporters at the lobby group's annual lunch on 11 December.
Despite the financial turmoil, "our industry indeed still has had a solid year and is in a relatively good position", Blakey said.
Military aircraft sales grew from USD54.2 billion to USD54.7 billion, while missile sales climbed from USD12.4 billion to USD13.2 billion. Space product sales increased from USD32 billion to USD33.4 billion.
Blakey was also optimistic about 2009, projecting USD214 billion in sales: a 4.8 per cent increase over 2008. She cautioned, however, that the jump between 2008 and 2009 would be closer to 2.2 per cent were it not for a machinist strike at Boeing that began in September.
"Our forecast for 2009 is for continued growth of the industry, albeit much more modest," she said.
Some defence experts have worried that the incoming Obama administration might be inclined to cut the defence budget, dealing a major blow to the aerospace defence sector.
The defence budget reached about USD656 billion in 2008, according to Representative John Murtha, and is poised to decline in future years as a result of a federal budget crunch.
"Defence spending will come under increasing pressure in the years ahead," said Murtha, who is Chairman of the House Appropriations Subcommittee. He spoke about the budget crunch in an 11 December speech at the Center for American Progress: a Washington think tank.
However, Blakey noted that the US military's budget for Fiscal Year 2009 had largely been decided already and that there is robust spending in place for aerospace programmes.
In 2009 military aircraft sales are projected to jump to USD57 billion; missile sales are expected to stay relatively flat at USD13.3 billion; while space programmes are expected to grow slightly to USD34.1 billion.
Tom Burbage, executive vice president for Lockheed Martin's F-35 Joint Strike Fighter programme, said the aircraft was well-funded in the Bush administration's 2010 Program Objective Memorandum (POM). Obama could alter that budget document, but Burbage said he was optimistic that the incoming president would support F-35 funding in the future.
"The administration is certainly leaving the F-35 Programme in a strong position in the FY10 POM," Burbage told Jane's in an 11 November email. "The programme has generally enjoyed strong political support through both party leadership periods. I think we'll be in pretty good shape with the new administration."
Blakey said the AIA would continue meeting with the Obama transition team to push for defence procurement spending of USD120 billion to USD150 billion a year.
The AIA also plans to offer Obama some ideas for reforming the Pentagon's acquisition process, which has been plagued by cost overruns and schedule slips in recent years.
Murtha also cited Pentagon acquisition problems, calling on the Pentagon to purchase crucial weapon systems in larger quantities to drive down costs.
"In terms of procurement, we don't have the industrial capability we had in the past," Murtha said.
"For instance, in 1943 the United States produced 86,000 airplanes in just one year. We can't produce that today. This is one of the reasons why I have insisted on buying in quantity, which gets programmes into the field faster and saves us money."
Date Posted: 12-Dec-2008
Jane's Defence Weekly
Will new measures keep Russian reform on track?
Russia has put together a USD5.4 billion aid package for its defence industry in response to the effects of the global economic downturn. Guy Anderson reports
Russia is reported to have put together a USD5.4 billion package of measures aimed at relieving the "dire cash shortage" of its defence industrial base and to keep the reform of its military sector on track despite the effects of the global economic downturn.
State information service RIA Novosti - citing Russian business paper Vedomosti - reported on 8 December that the measures will include increasing advance payments from the government to defence suppliers; the provision of state guarantees for loans; the subsidising of interest payments; the exchange of equity for financial support; and the prevention of bankruptcies.
Russian Deputy Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov was reported to have told Vedomosti that USD1.8 billion would be set aside to subsidise interest payments on loans and to increase the capitalisation of companies, while USD3.6 billion would guarantee loans.
State-controlled defence giants Rostekhnologii (Russian Technology) and United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) are likely to be the principle beneficiaries, RIA Novosti said.
The focus on the two conglomerates is unsurprising, given that they represent the crown jewels of Russia's defence industrial base. Russian Technology is at the forefront of efforts to close the country's advanced technology gap, while UAC requires USD4.8 billion between 2008 and 2012 to fund its corporate development programme.
Both were also heading towards a series of initial public offerings over the coming years, which are likely to be less appealing given current investment climates.
UAC - encompassing more than 21 fixed-wing aerospace assets including Sukhoi, Tupolev and Yakolev - alone accounts for around 40 per cent of Russia's annual defence industrial output, with revenues in excess of USD4 billion.
Moscow currently holds more than 90 per cent of UAC stock: a shareholding that was expected to reduce to around 51 per cent should UAC go ahead with plans for a partial market listing in late 2009/early 2010. The suggestion that greater equity will be issued to the state in exchange for financial support seems to scotch the possibility of reduced government involvement.
Russian Technology, meanwhile, comprises more than 420 individual organisations (including state defence exporter Rosoboronexport and rotary wing holding company OPK Oboronprom), around 300 of which are focused on the defence sector. The venture to a defence industrial Gazprom. The body was, in part, expected to lead subsidiary companies to market over the next two to four years.
The bleak financial climate of late 2007 and 2008 came at an important juncture in the development of Russia's defence industrial base.
The country's military organisations are two years into a programme of reform intended to wrench organisations from the working practices of the Soviet era. The aim is to expand industrial footprints to meet the twin challenges of domestic rearmament and a swollen export order book.
The cost of developing the industrial base was put at USD19.25 billion (2007 dollar values): 40 per cent of which was to have come from industry itself, largely through commercial loans and partial market listings.
Expectations changed as a result of the dearth of credit and the poor climate for new market entrants, prompting Deputy Prime Minister and former Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov to warn in November that the country's military industries are being "crippled" by the economic crisis, calling on state banks to provide additional funding to alleviate a "situation [that] could become quite painful".
The idea of advanced payments and increased funding for state defence orders were put forward by Ivanov in October, in addition to five-year tax breaks on state defence contracts and loans with interest rates of 8 to 9 per cent (negative in real terms, given Russia's double digit inflation).
Increased investment in defence procurement has been a feature for much of this decade. The overall defence budget rocketed from USD8.3 billion in 2000, to USD39 billion this year, with funding of USD50 billion earmarked for 2009.
Bankruptcy protection was also raised as far back as 2006 when the Federal Industry and Energy Ministry warned that 242 of Russia's 948 "strategic industries" - including defence assets - were facing insolvency proceedings.
The suggestion of issuing both new equity and debt in favour of the government reflects an existing trend that has seen Moscow tighten its grip over the defence industrial sector in recent years, both by corraling ventures into state-dominated assets such as rotary wing group OPK Oboronprom and United Aircraft Corporation and by protecting "strategic assets" from foreign takeovers.
Whether the USD5.4 billion support package will be followed (or will need to be followed) by additional measures remains to be seen. The influx of government money follows a period in which Russia has injected billions of dollars to bring liquidity to its banking system while facing falling oil revenues (on which the economy relies).
It should also be asked whether such measures will go some way towards helping industry face its underlying problems. It has previously been suggested that the defence industrial base has been hampered in the past by dated management practices and a culture that discouraged an entrepreneurial approach: factors that may not be helped by greater government control.
Guy Anderson is Jane's Defence Industry Editor, based in London
>US aerospace industry predicted to grow despite economic downturn
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несмотря на кризис, объем продаж аэроспейсв США все же по оценкам профильной ассоциации вырастет в 2009, с 204 до 214 млрд. Правда, все это вилами по воде в нынешней ситуации (это я от себя)
Второй материал - спекуляции на тему, насколько антикризисный пакет помощи ВПК РФ на сумму $5,4 млрд ему поможет. Ссылаются на нашу газету:) Сама сумма складывается из 50 млрд руб инвестиций в капитал, субсидирования ставок и субсидий стратегическим банкротам+100 млрд госгарантий по банковским кредитам. Среди получателей в первую очередь предприятия ОАК и Ростехнологий