От В. Кашин
К СанитарЖеня
Дата 30.11.2008 14:37:34
Рубрики Современность; Локальные конфликты;

Есть определенные военные телодвижения с двух сторон

Добрый день!

которые в такой ситуации были бы неизбежны. Но хотя атака и начата с территории Пакистана, нет никаких признаков, что в ней виновно действующее пакистанское руководство в лице президента Зардари. Скорее это враги правящего режима из числа радикальных исламистов, возможно при поддержке отдельных элементов в армии и спецслужбах. Соотношение сил между Индией и Пакистаном все-таки не такое как между Израилем и Ливаном/Газой, чтобы в ответ на операцию экстремистской группы начинать хреначить все подряд ради успокоения собственного электората и собственных комплексов - можно нехило огрести в ответ. Тем более, что даже локальные силовые меры Индии без начала полномасштабной войны ослабят Зардари, вызовут новую волну бегства капитала из Пакистана (что может вызвать дефолт) и усилят позиции исламистов. Собственно, такие мнения выражают и многие индийские авторитетные бывшие чиновники. Напр. ниже бывший советник по нацбезопасности и бывший министр иностранных дел говорят, что военная операция практически исключена.


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Yahoo! News
Attacks push India and Pakistan into deep water: analysts
by Elizabeth Roche Elizabeth Roche Sun Nov 30, 1:04 am ET

NEW DELHI (AFP) – Outrage in India over the Mumbai attacks risks sparking a dangerous escalation in tensions with Pakistan, analysts say, even as Islamabad cautions against any knee-jerk reaction.

Having accused "elements in Pakistan" of involvement in the ruthless attacks that left 195 dead in India's financial capital, the government here is now under extreme public pressure to exact some form of visible retribution.

The two nuclear-armed South Asian rivals are past masters of the art of military and diplomatic brinkmanship, but the stakes are heightened by looming general elections in India in which national security will be a key issue.

In a televised address to the nation on Thursday, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh vowed that the perpetrators and organisers of the Mumbai assault would be made to pay "a heavy price."

On Saturday, Singh called a meeting of India's army, navy and air force chiefs.

But while India would like to lean heavily on Islamabad to ensure it delivers on repeated promises to prevent Pakistani territory being used for anti-India activities, analysts say the government's options are limited.

Former national security advisor Brajesh Mishra said New Delhi would be constrained by a lack of proof that Islamabad had any direct role in the attacks.

"There is little to suggest that the gunmen were sponsored by the Pakistani government," Mishra said.

The scale and style of the assaults -- involving multiple targets and hostage-taking -- bore "the hallmarks of Al-Qaeda attacks in the Middle East and North Africa," Mishra said.

"These are new elements that differentiate the Mumbai attacks from the parliament attack."

In 2001, gunmen from the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba militant group attacked the Indian parliament, resulting in the complete rupture of diplomatic ties and pushing the rivals to the brink of war.

Former foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal all but ruled out the possibility of India resorting to any cross-border military response.

"The Indian leadership would have to weigh very carefully the consequences of using the military option in the wider context of peace and stability in the region," Sibal said.

Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari appealed for calm on Saturday and argued that any increase in Indo-Pakistan tensions would be a victory for the extremists.

"Whoever is responsible for the brutal and crude act against the Indian people and India are looking for reaction," Zardari said in an interview with Indian CNN-IBN television.

"We have to rise above them and make sure ourselves, yourself and world community guard against over-reaction," he said.

Kalim Bahadur, a retired professor of international relations, said India might find it difficult to take a hard line with Pakistan, given that Zardari's government was still finding its feet and itself battling Islamic militants.

"The Pakistani president's grip on power is not strong. We have seen that Zardari says things, then he is contradicted or he has to clarify what he has said.

"The situation seems to be that the democratic government has no control over extremist elements," Bahadur said.

Independent security analyst K. Subrahmanyam suggested that a primary motive for the Mumbai attacks could well have been a desire to "wreck the peace process" launched by India and Pakistan in January 2004.

Given the targeting of foreigners by the Mumbai attackers, Subrahmanyam said New Delhi had an opportunity to rally international pressure on Islamabad to cut support to Islamist groups.

Another analyst, C.Uday Bhaskar, urged Singh and his government to keep the engagement with Pakistan on track while carefully monitoring Islamabad's actions in the coming weeks.

"Snapping links is not a desirable option," he said.

Copyright © 2008 Agence France Presse. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AFP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of Agence France Presse.
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С уважением, Василий Кашин
От СанитарЖеня
К В. Кашин (30.11.2008 14:37:34)
Дата 30.11.2008 15:17:31

А вариант, в котором это дело рук... скажем осторожно... не пакистанцев?

По принципу qui prodest?
От А.Никольский
К СанитарЖеня (30.11.2008 15:17:31)
Дата 30.11.2008 18:29:12

конспирология по этому вопросу тут:

http://uzhas-sovka.livejournal.com/1407748.html
ну и там рядом в этом же ЖЖ
С уважением, А.Никольский
От В. Кашин
К СанитарЖеня (30.11.2008 15:17:31)
Дата 30.11.2008 16:15:29

Re: А вариант,...

Добрый день!
>По принципу qui prodest?
 это выгодно радикальным силам внутри Пакистана и разным транснациональным исламским группам. Америке это не выгодно - Пакистан сейчас на гране дефолта, полного экономического и политического краха и США такой исход не нужен. Они предпринимают реальные усилия чтобы его предотвратить (помощь в организации кредита МВФ), зачем же самим себе все портить. У Индии с США отношения сейчас опять же на подъеме, это для американцев не враг, а перспективный партнер.
С уважением, Василий Кашин