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Дата 22.07.2003 02:55:04 Найти в дереве
Рубрики Прочее; Современность; Локальные конфликты; Версия для печати

С удовольствием подсчитываем американские потери в Ираке?

Ох и наедут на меня...
А, пусть.

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Soldiers per year, by country in the Vietnam Conflict.

Year American SVN Aust. Korea New Zeal Philip Thai
1959 760 243000 -- -- -- -- --
1960 900 243000 -- -- -- -- --
1961 3205 243000 -- -- -- -- --
1962 11300 243000 -- -- -- -- --
1963 16300 243000 -- -- -- -- --
1964 23300 514000 198 200 30 20 --
1965 184300 642500 1560 20620 120 70 20
1966 385300 735900 4530 25570 160 2060 240
1967 485600 798700 6820 47830 530 2020 2200
1968 536100 820000 7660 50000 520 1580 6000
1969 475200 897000 7670 48870 550 190 11570
1970 334600 968000 6800 48450 440 70 11570
1971 156800 1046250 2000 45700 100 50 6000
1972 24200 1048000 130 36790 50 50 40
1973 50 1110000 -- -- -- --

This means that the US spent approximately 2.6 million man years in Vietnam.

There were 58k US soldier deaths with 2.4k more MIAs and 114 POWs who died in captivity. Let us round off and say 60k deaths.

60k/2.6M = .0231 deaths per man year.

Now let us overestimate on all counts in order to try and make the Iraqi war look remotely as dangerous as Vietnam. Let us say we have had an average of 200,000 troops for 4 months. This would be 67k man years.

150/67k = .0022

It looks to me as though Vietnam was at least 10 times more dangerous than Iraq.

Moreover, when quoting an argument I used earlier, the life table in the Actuarial Math Book (Ver. 2 - pg 60) says that in 1979, the mortality rate for a 20yo was .00120

So it seems to me that being a soldier in Iraq is less than twice as dangerous as not being a soldier, and more than ten times as dangerous as being a soldier in Vietnam.

Any questions?