Вообше-то Standard & Poors не подтверждает - Турция не в лучшей форме, но..
....катастрофы нет...
Turkey B-/C Ratings and Stable Outlook Unaffected By Mixed Political and Economic Developments
Publication date: 06-Mar-2003
Credit Analyst: Ala'a Al-Yousuf, D.Phil. , London (44) 20-7847-7104; Konrad Reuss, London (44) 20-7847-7102; Marie Cavanaugh, New York (1) 212-438-7343
LONDON (Standard & Poor's) March 6, 2003--Standard & Poor's Ratings
Services said today its ratings on the Republic of Turkey (B-/Stable/C)
are not affected by further delays in reaching an accord with the U.S. on
military and economic assistance.
"The very narrow defeat on March 1 of a government motion to allow the
deployment of U.S. and Turkish troops into northern Iraq was a surprise,
but it is only expected to delay the eventual approval of the U.S. troop
deployment and the release of a yet-to-be-finalized U.S. aid package to
the Turkish government," said Ala'a Al-Yousuf, Standard & Poor's credit
analyst and director of sovereign ratings for the Middle East and Africa.
"The stable outlook on Turkey adequately reflects the mixed developments
and prospects in the political and economic spheres."
The Justice and Development Party (AKP) government is likely to resubmit
the motion to parliament after a by-election in Siirt scheduled for March
9, in which AKP chairman Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to be elected.
Following this by-election, Mr. Erdogan is expected to take over as prime
minister from Abdullah Gul, thereby addressing a political anomaly. The
second time around, parliament is expected to approve the deployment of
U.S. and Turkish troops and hence unlock U.S. financial assistance. The
aid package is expected to amount to $24 billion--$6 billion in grants and
the rest in loan guarantees--and is expected to reduce the government's
borrowing requirements, thereby leading to lower interest rates.
In addition, the government seems to have finally reached an agreement
with the IMF on a program for 2003 targeting Gross National Product (GNP)
growth of 5.0% and a primary public sector surplus of 6.5% of GNP. This
fiscal target is to be achieved through a combination of expenditure cuts
amounting to Turkish lira (TL) 9.8 quadrillion ($5.9 billion) and
revenue-raising measures amounting to TL5.9 quadrillion. As a result, the
long-delayed fourth review of the standby arrangement and the associated
release of a tranche of $1.6 billion in credits could be approved in early
April, strengthening government finances and market confidence during what
could prove to be turbulent times. Moreover, the government is making
progress in its discussions with the World Bank on the release of tranches
from existing loans and the approval of further structural adjustment
loans.
Turkey's economy is highly vulnerable to external current account shocks
(for example, oil price spikes, falls in tourism receipts, and drops in
merchandise exports to the EU) and, particularly, interest rate shocks
that could put its huge debt burden on a spiraling path. So far, financial
markets have reacted to recent mixed news with relative calm. Interest
rates and the lira exchange rate have remained broadly unchanged despite
earlier volatility.
"As always, the path of real interest rates in Turkey--and hence
prospects for reducing public debt--will depend, in part, on the
government's ability to maintain domestic political stability and stay the
course on its IMF-supported program, and, in part, on external
developments out of the government's control," said Mr. Al-Yousuf.
Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of
RatingsDirect, Standard & Poor's Web-based credit analysis system, at
www.ratingsdirect.com. Alternatively, call one of Standard & Poor's
Ratings Desks: London (44) 20-7847-7400; Paris (33) 1-4420-6705; Frankfurt
(49) 69-33-999-223; or Stockholm (46) 8-440-5916. Members of the media may
contact the Press Office Hotline on (44) 20-7826-3605 or via
media_europe@standardandpoors.com.
