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Михаил Лукин
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24.04.2002 23:37:44
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Современность; ВВС;
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Статейка "новых дух американской обороны" из Aerospace America за март (англ.)
Copyright 2002 American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc.;
All Rights Reserved
Aerospace America
March, 2002
SECTION: WASHINGTON WATCH; Pg. 8
LENGTH: 2293 words
HEADLINE: A new spirit for national defense
BYLINE: Robert F. Dorr, robertdorr@aol.com
BODY:
In late January, shortly after the administration marked its first year in office, President George W. Bush argued that the nation will need to spend more on defense. Some in Washington also say the U.S. ought to invest in more B-2 Spirit stealth bombers. A few voices are raising concern about deficit spending, but both Republicans and Democrats -- with a handful of exceptions -- are supporting tax cuts.
The Bush defense budget
On January 23, Bush called for a $ 48-billion hike in military spending, the largest increase in two decades, to round out what The Washington Post called a "war-scrambled budget."
Acknowledging that his request for FY03 is the first in four years to be sent to Congress with a built-in deficit, Bush said he is giving "first priority" to building the armed forces, "even if it puts a strain on the budget." In all, the administration will be seeking about $ 706 billion, not including funds for mandatory programs such as Medicare and Medicaid. This will leave the government about $ 80 billion in deficit. In spite of the red ink, the administration also plans to forge ahead with tax cuts. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, reversing his position of a year ago, now says the economy is improving on its own and may no longer need additional tax cuts, though these are still being talked up by both political parties. Although individual Democrats have criticized administration fiscal policy on various grounds, neither party is opposing tax cuts or urging a reduction in spending.
Of total spending, nearly half will go to the Pentagon in a defense spending hike of about 15% over what had been planned before the September 11 terror attack on the U.S.
Many defense experts see a need for new hardware ("the tools of modern warfare," in Bush's words), ranging from a national missile defense system to an expanded fleet of B-2 Spirit bombers. The budget, which Bush outlined in his January 29 State of the Union address and submitted to the Congress in February, includes hefty spending on homeland security. Big-ticket items include the federalizing of 30,000 airport security workers previously employed by the private sector and the purchase of equipment to protect postal workers from anthrax.
The administration's budget plan competed for headlines with news of the financial collapse of Enron (the largest corporate failure in history) and a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing by K-Mart (the largest retail failure in recent times). Many people having no connection with either company were hurt because they belonged to a pension plan that held Enron stock. Still, polls showed most Americans in tune with Greenspan's optimism about the economy and in favor of the administration's fiscal plans.
The budget affects 14 departments, dozens of independent agencies, and hundreds of programs, from space research to road building. No area has changed more dramatically, however, than defense spending. The administration is no longer focusing on the armed forces "transformation" that was both a campaign pledge and a policy goal. As reported by Thomas Ricks in The Washington Post, the effort toward transformation "ended in a virtual stalemate. The top brass feared that [Defense Secretary Donald] Rumsfeld would pay for his priorities, such as missile defense, by cutting their priorities, like new weapons systems."
Although commanders often say they are shackled by the burden of maintaining unnecessary infrastructure, one idea that is completely dead in Washington is the notion of base closings -- once championed by Rumsfeld. In the words of Rep. Frank Wolf (R-Va.), "Nobody is going to talk about base closings at this time."
The defense appropriations bill provides for about $ 317.5 billion in new budget authority, including a military pay raise of 4.6%, $ 42.6 billion for 13 new F-22 Raptor fighters, $ 1.5 billion for development of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, and $ 8.2 billion for missile defense.
Critics see the increased spending as an unwanted return to Reagan-era deficits. Retired Air Force Col. Randall Larsen, a Washington analyst on terrorism and director of the Anser [Analytical Services] Institute for Homeland Security, warns that the greatest risk to the nation comes not from a truck bomb, an anthrax attack, or even a nuclear weapon. "The greatest risk is uncontrolled spending," says Larsen.
Another look at the B-2
In Washington, a coalition of legislative, industry, and government figures is urging the Bush administration to put the B-2 Spirit bomber back into production. Designed for nuclear warfare with the Soviet Union (especially against mobile, relocatable missile forces) and built with radar-evading stealth capabilities, the B-2 ended production in the mid-1990s when the 21st aircraft was delivered. B-2s have performed in combat successfully in Kosovo (1999) and Afghanistan (2001).
Two years ago, an analyst pronounced the issue "dead" and told Washington Watch, "There is no way anyone will ever revive the question of producing more B-2s." Since then, the Bush administration has taken office and terrorists attacked the U.S.
More important, perhaps, is that B-2 advocates have refined their proposal and tailored it for nonnuclear conflicts such as the one in Afghanistan. Northrop Grumman is promising that it can deliver 40 B-2C [conventional] bombers at an average unit cost of $ 545 million. The complete price tag, taking into account development expenses, would be $ 735 million a copy. Both figures compare favorably to what the Air Force paid for the current 21 B-2A Block 30 models.
Among those who want to build more B-2s are Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.), Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, and Douglas Feith, undersecretary of defense for policy. The B-2 is "the best way to address our changing military needs today," says Hunter. He also believes that this bomber -- which enjoys the distinction of being the most expensive aircraft ever built -- is "a bargain for the taxpayer."
Another B-2 booster is retired Lt. Gen. Thomas McInerney, a respected military analyst, who says that a new generation of munitions makes it possible for just one of the bombers to hit dozens of targets simultaneously, with extraordinary accuracy.
McInerney is a champion of a concept called "Simpac," or simultaneous, multiprecision attack capability, in which a B-2C would strike 30-60 targets at once, all while loitering at 45,000 ft, out of range of most air defense weapons. Using a map of Washington, D.C., as a hypothetical target, a chart used by McInerney in briefings shows how a single B-2 could allegedly "paralyze the nation's capital by delivering multiple weapons simultaneously in one pass" on locations ranging from the National Security Agency in Fort Meade, Md., to Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport.
"We're going to have to make very tough choices," McInerney says. He wants to retire the current fleet of almost 100 B-1B Lancer bombers which, he argues, is "eating its own lunch" in maintenance costs. He says industry can provide four to six B-2Cs a year for 10% of what we spend annually on fighters.
Air Force Secretary James Roche -- who once had a key role in developing the bomber -- told Washington Watch why he opposes reopening the B-2 production line. Says Roche, "It's too slow." Stationed at Whiteman AFB, Mo., the B-2 must make a 16-hr one-way trek just to reach a target in Afghanistan. During that time, a target can change -- or go away. Although stealthy to radar, the B-2 is easy to spot visually, and at subsonic speed would be vulnerable to fighters.
So far, the B-2 has flown effective missions only from Whiteman. A $ 12-million construction effort is gearing up to provide B-2 facilities on Guam and at two overseas bases. But the bomber will still be unable to deploy to any airfield -- say, Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean -- and begin flying missions. Other bombers do this routinely. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. John Jumper acknowledges that the B-2 -- which first appeared in 1989 -- is still not ready to be deployed to forward positions.
Aviation developments
There were brief snippets of apparent good news in the aviation industry. United Airlines agreed at the end of January to a 37% pay hike for its mechanics, averting a possible strike that might have occurred at a time when the nation's second-largest carrier is losing $ 16 million a day. Two days later, Boeing announced an unprecedented order for 150 737 jetliners from upstart regional carrier RyanAir. This is a windfall that may avert further layoffs by the aircraft manufacturing giant now based in Chicago.
In the safety realm, the Federal Aviation Administration reported that near-collisions on the nation's airport runways fell last year for the first time since 1993. Total runway incidents dropped from a high of 431 in 2000 to 380 in 2001, while "serious" incidents declined during the same period from 68 to 50, a 26% drop.
Last year, when Congress debated federalization of airport screeners -- now the law of the land -- Rep. John Dingell (D-Mich.) urged haste. "How [can] we continue the status quo, allowing the same kind of rent-a-cops to commit the same kind of outrages?" he asked, referring to security lapses. In mid-January, airport screeners at Reagan National strip-searched the lawmaker. After a metal joint in his hip drew attention, Dingell said, he was forced to remove his jacket, socks, and pants in a private room. Dingell shrugged off the incident. Less forgiving was former Marine and former South Dakota Gov. Joe Foss, who was hassled at the Phoenix, Ariz., Sky Harbor Airport for carrying an object containing metal -- the Medal of Honor he was issued for heroism in WW II.
Critics argue that instead of creating an elite federal corps of professional security personnel, Congress is simply taking the same screeners who were on duty on September 11 and transforming them into Feds.
In preparation for Bush's visit to China this month, Washington and Beijing are purposely downplaying the incident of the bugged jet. Allegations that clandestine listening devices were found aboard a Boeing 767-300ER jetliner built for President Jiang Zemin have been set aside by both governments so that they may focus on larger issues. Chinese authorities reportedly found 27 highly sophisticated, satellite-activated devices aboard the plane, which was built in Seattle, Wash., by Boeing and outfitted in San Antonio, Texas, by Dee Howard.
Chinese Foreign Minister Sun Yuxi said the alleged bugging would not have "any impact on other issues."
Other news
At press time, the Pentagon was continuing the war on terror overseas with American Special Forces troops operating in Afghanistan, Somalia, and the Philippines. Amid heat and mosquitoes on the island of Mindanao, Special Forces soldiers were avoiding direct combat with insurgents, but were training the Philippine 5th Marines as they stalked Muslim terrorist forces.
It remains unclear whether the U.S. plans action against Saddam Hussein's Iraq. Former Navy Secretary John Lehmann Jr. has recommended both military action against Iraq, and -- in a move that would reverse longstanding policy -- political action aimed at changing the climate in Saudi Arabia, which he calls "a breeding ground for anti-American thinking."
The Missile Defense Agency is the new name for the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization, headed by Air Force Lt. Gen. Ronald Kadish. In 2001 BMDO underwent a major reorganization aimed at removing the distinction between theater and national missile defense. It has now announced further changes to make the agency more responsive to the administration's plans for a missile defense shield.
Kadish has acknowledged that changing the name will not change the biggest challenge facing his organization: the rising cost of intercept missiles. Opponents of NMD have not said much recently about whether a defense against ballistic missile attack is a worthwhile investment for the nation, though a few critics argue that an adversary could as easily launch a nuclear attack on the U.S. using a container ship or a trailer truck.
New NASA Administrator Sean O'Keefe has selected Marine Maj. Gen. Charles Bolden Jr., an astronaut and veteran of four spaceflights, as his deputy. At press time, the new space agency chief had not yet named a replacement for Joseph Rothenberg as associate administrator for spaceflight.
O'Keefe continues to face the challenge of a potential cost overrun of up to $ 5 billion on the International Space Station. He says he will continue to oversee normal activities, including six shuttle missions this year, while searching for new ways of doing business. The administrator continues to say that privatization of shuttle operations lies in the near-term future.
And finally, Washington bade farewell to former Secretary of State Cyrus Vance, who died January 12 at age 84 following a long battle with Alzheimer's disease. He was buried later at Arlington National Cemetery. Vance made "a long journey that advanced the cause of peace," said former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in his eulogy.
Vance took on various jobs for presidents, Congress, and the U.N. over 30 years, including a quiet but vital role in steering the U.S. out of the Vietnam War. Absent from the service for Vance was former President Jimmy Carter. As Carter's Secretary of State, Vance resigned in protest over a military operation for the rescue of U.S. hostages in Iran in April 1980. Eight servicemen died in the failed effort to save the 53 hostages, who were held for 444 days.
GRAPHIC: Picture 1, Alan Greenspan; Picture 2, Many in Washington are calling for additional B-2 bombers, but not Air Force Secretary Roche; Picture 3, Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.); Picture 4, Maj. Gen. Charles Bolden Jr.; Picture 5, Cyrus Vance
LOAD-DATE: March 12, 2002
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