Над этим думают лучшие умы Чатэм хауза, IISS и прочих Рэндов
В основном пишут (тот же Чатэм хауз) что нечего боятся Путина и надо поставлять летальное оружие, но есть и робкие голоса противников, что это похоронит деэскалацию конфликта
Вот например что в Чатэм хаузе думают (краткая аннотация - поставки оружия сорвут путинский блеф и обнажат его слабость)
To Support Ukraine, West Must Go Beyond Sanctions
James Sherr | Asociate Fellow | Russia and Eurasia Programme
Providing critical military assistance to Ukraine would devalue Russia’s advantage in negotiations. From the outset of the Ukraine crisis, the West has acted on the premise that economic sanctions would induce Russia to modify its actions. But while sanctions do constrain capacity, they do not constrain behaviour. Their immediate impact is bearable. Moreover, they do nothing to diminish Russia’s most usable and effective form of power: military force. Given the stakes, the case for strengthening Ukraine’s defences is compelling.
The Russian military offensive of August 2014 secured diplomatic concessions in Minsk that would not have been granted otherwise. An even more devastating offensive of January-February 2015, in blatant violation of the first Minsk agreement, produced a second Minsk accord even more flawed than the first. According to its terms, future election conditions, constitutional reform and the restoration of border control are subject to the agreement of the separatists, who have licence to withhold their consent indefinitely.
'What has repeatedly provoked Putin is weakness and bluff.'
It is blindingly obvious to the Kremlin that the separatist enclaves are neither absorbable by Russia nor sustainable in the long term. They are useful solely as a bridgehead for securing Russia’s wider objectives in Ukraine: its ‘federalization’ (loss of sovereignty), ‘non-bloc status’ (enforced neutrality) and the abandonment of its European course. So far, military force has been the arbiter of this process.
But if Russia’s military card is devalued, so is the bridgehead. And there are good reasons to believe strengthening Kyiv’s military muscle would be effective.
