(Updates with Lockhart pars 7,8, Pentagon para 18)
By Paul Taylor, Diplomatic Editor
UNITED NATIONS, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Prospects of a military clash between Iraq and United States are growing in the run-up to the U.S. presidential election, diplomats say, but the Clinton administration is sure to weigh the political risks carefully.
U.S., British and Kuwaiti officials say the Iraqi air force has been flying provocative missions in the last two weeks to challenge Western-imposed no-fly zones over northern and southern Iraq. One jet violated Saudi airspace, they said.
Baghdad has revived old accusations that Kuwait is stealing its oil and threatened to take unspecified measures against the neighbor in invaded in 1990, sparking the 1991 Gulf War.
The Iraqi air force had recently fired a new air-to-air missile in an exercise, showing an upgraded capability to threaten U.S. and British planes patrolling the no-fly zones, which Iraq does not recognize, one source said.
"The West has been holding back so far, but if this pattern of provocation continues, I'd be very surprised if we get through the next few weeks without some serious military action," a senior Western diplomat said.
Such action would likely involve major U.S. and British air strikes on Iraqi air bases, he said.
In Washington, White House spokesman Joe Lockhart said the United States was deeply committed to stopping Saddam threatening his neighbors or rebuilding his weapons of mass destruction.
"He has had times where he's miscalculated. But he should not miscalculate our resolve," he told reporters on Friday.
SADDAM SEEN EXPLOITING U.S. CAMPAIGN
Western officials believe President Saddam Hussein, true to past form, will exploit the sensitive U.S. campaign season to dramatize Iraq's opposition to U.N. economic sanctions and try to embarrass President Bill Clinton.
They said the White House had discussed plans for a range of eventualities, including Iraqi military action against the Kurds, an attack on Western aircraft or on Kuwait, and the risk that Saddam might play with oil exports to send world prices through the roof before the Nov. 7 U.S. vote.
Among Iraq's current tactics are an attempt to break a decade-old civil aviation boycott by starting civilian flights from Russia and trying to bring in a planeload of anti- sanctions activists from France.
U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright warned Iraq on Thursday that Washington stood ready to take military action if Baghdad threatened its neighbors.
"We do have a credible force in the region and are prepared to use it in an appropriate way at a time of our choosing," Albright told a news conference.
Diplomats said she discussed possible Iraqi actions that might prompt a military response with Foreign Secretary Robin Cook of Britain, Washington's closest ally on Iraq, on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly this week.
Albright was also due to meet Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah in New York on Friday night as fears of a U.S.-Iraqi confrontation helped push oil prices close to 10-year highs.
Diplomats said Washington would look to Riyadh, the world's biggest oil producer, to use its spare capacity to boost crude production if Iraq's 2.3 million barrels a day in exports were taken off the market.
RELUCTANT WARRIORS?
Sources familiar with U.S. thinking said the administration was reluctant to be drawn into a clash, and while U.S. forces in the Gulf had been placed on higher alert, commanders had been instructed not to over-react to minor transgressions.
A Pentagon spokesman said there had been no appreciable increase or decrease in U.S. forces in the region in the last six months to a year and stressed they had seen no Iraqi troop or equipment movement unusual for this time of year.
Anthony Cordesman, a respected Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said there was a real risk of "an October surprise".
"Nobody is gung-ho, but certainly there has been increasing readiness and they have seriously considered the options to escalate if Saddam escalates," he said.
The United States would not initiate action in response to the Saudi air incursion or verbal threats, but any sign of a serious Iraqi military initiative against Kuwait would draw a massive and swift air response, he said.
Experts said the domestic political impact was a major factor in the administration's calculations about Iraq.
The risk was that any military action would merely remind voters that a defiant Saddam is still in power, making the Clinton administration look ineffectual and rubbing off on Vice President Al Gore, the Democratic candidate.
REMINDER OF FAILURES
"It would be a reminder of the failures of the Clinton administration over eight years," said Philip Gordon, a White House National Security Council official until last year.
"It would be classic Saddam to try to take his revenge in the last two months of this administration by embarrassing the president and taking advantage of our unwillingness to act," said Gordon, now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
He said the administration did not want to have to bomb Iraq again, but there was a broad public consensus on the need to be tough with Saddam.
"The question is how much of a provocation we would need to see before we act," he said.
Republican candidate George W. Bush's ability to use any incident with Iraq against Gore was limited by the fact that it was his father, ex-president George Bush, who left Saddam in power at the end of the Gulf War, Gordon said.
Diplomats said Washington would not need to reinforce its forces in the Gulf region to take military action.
The U.S. military has just under 200 aircraft, including helicopters, and about 20,000 personnel in the area, including the George Washington aircraft carrier battle group.
(additional reporting by David Storey and Tabassum Zakaria in Washington)
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Friday, 15 September 2000 22:42:53
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